$5M or 5 Years in Jail… For a Hole in One? Hypothetical Challenge

[Wanzo]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

I don't understand many of the "no" votes. If you're a reasonably good golfer, the odds are pretty well in your favor.

I vote no.  Maybe if I was single.  Odds pretty well in my favor doesn’t make me feel any better if I’m in jail for 5 years away from my family.  Although I do feel confident I could do it.  Just not worth that risk. 

[DeadMan]

Gun to my head, I would take the bet. I'll hit flagsticks on the range a couple of times a year, and I'm pretty sure I don't take 7500 swings on the driving range every year. 

But man, can you imagine if you don't make it the first 3 weeks? The pressure would be getting pretty high at that point.

[bkuehn1952]

No. I am comfortable with my financial situation and 5 years in prison is not a risk I will take. I am fairly certain given 7,500 attempts I would put one or more in but not certain.

[dennyjones]

I have to agree with @bkuehn1952.   The five years in jail would pretty much put an end to my golfing career and my marriage.   I can live w/o the extra money and still play golf when I choose.     The risk isn't worth the reward.   

 

[TN94z]

If I were a single man, I'd take the bet. But having a family that depends on me...I'll pass. 5 million would be life changing for sure but so would 5 years in prison when I am living comfortably as is.

[DaveP043]

Even though I understand that the odds are in my favor, the downside results don't justify even a reasonably small risk.  

[3jacker]

I think their might be easier ways to get $5M while still running the risk of going to jail (but less risk). 

The 1/12,500 does not mean that I'll get 1 within 12,500 attempts. Or even 100,000+ attempts.

I like $ money but I love my freedom.

Edited February 28, 2019 by 3jacker

[Edsland]

Nope, in 50 years of playing without one im pretty certain it would be the slammer for me. 

[Swooshgolf]

I voted no. I don't think people are factoring in the added pressure of jail and how easily that can affect your shot. A hole in one already requires a little luck.

[3jacker]

While I'm sitting in jail I'd have plenty of time to ponder how I beat the odds and still somehow failed to ace the hole.  I can easily picture this. The last day or so of attempts would really suck with that kind of pressure. No way.

[Wally Fairway]

I've watched that Euro Tour hole-in-one challenge too many times for me to take the bet.
While I think I could make on with 7,500 shots, and the knowledge that you want to roll the ball at the hole not fly it in; there is a part of me that thinks I'm jinxed as I'm still waiting for my first one during a round of golf. Then again I've only been playing about 50 years.

I think the important question is this some hard time SuperMax prison, a shit-hole state run facility or one of those Federal Club-Fed minimum security type joints?

I've gotta agree with @jamo it would be an interesting conversation with my grandkids. I lipped out a couple of 8 irons from 145 so I'm doing 5 years, how is school going for you?
And @DeadMan is right, the pressure would certainly start to build after the first week or 2.

I'll stick to buying a mega/powerball ticket every month or so; odds are a lot worse than this challenge, but I'm not going to jail for losing $2.
 

[3jacker]

4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I think the important question is this some hard time SuperMax prison, a shit-hole state run facility or one of those Federal Club-Fed minimum security type joints?

Norway has some very enlightened, nice prisons.  At least one.. I saw on a Netflix show the other day.  I might take the bet if it was stipulated that I'd go to jail in Norway.

[Benit0]

Never made a hole in one, I would not take the bet, my game is not good enough to take that risk!! Also I want to see my children grow up in the next 5 years!

[p1n9183]

Refused the offer. I have a good life, if i won, it could be better but if not my life could get ruined at all.
Jail = punched/kicked daily, probably get raped and could get killed. Life after prison it´s going to be a really bad one, unemployed, with a lot of phsicological issues, and probably a bit lonely. Imagine facing a Par 3 after 5 years in jail, hartbreaking... jaja.  

Moreover, 0 holes in one after 20 years of golf (12years  as a scratch player). Just 3..4 holes-outs outside 100 yards... No sir!

[Fairway_CY]

Wow... so tempting!  

I don't think I could take the bet, though.  I'm good with my 8 iron, and I'm certain with that number of shots... I'd come very close, but... if I didn't make one early on, the pressure would mount and it would become near impossible.  

I play golf for fun and to relieve stress.  Bringing stress into the equation with the threat of prison hanging over my head would completely destroy that for me!

CY

[3jacker]

Geez, I'm pretty sure you can still survive if your criminal record is "failure to make a hole-in-one."

[mcanadiens]

Tough call. 

I'd need time to think about and more time to prepare for it if things were a go.

Hitting from 135 yards to an open green is actually one of my most preferred shots in golf. The odds seem pretty good.

Financially, I'm ok personally, but there are others close to me who are not. The $5M would really help, but I'd need to also be sure of their welfare if I go to the gray-bar hotel.

 

[MacDutch]

No!

Don’t want to hit 250 shots every day with my 8 iron. And I’m a lot better making hole in ones with my hybrids. So, not gonna take the bet.