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What is more likely to happen?


Seals
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More Likely?  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. Which is more likely to happen?

    • An amateur wins the U.S. Open
      25
    • A Club Pro wins the PGA Championship
      6


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I voted A. Some collegiate players and high-level amateur players are almost professionals. Club pros, even those who are club pros in name only, don't have the time to practice like even college amateurs.

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Obviously amateur at US Open.  Ams regularly enter the weekend in contention.  That shows that of course we're only one long tail performance from a winner.  Club pros show up on the weekend at the PGA much less often, IIRC.

Matt

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1 hour ago, Seals said:

An amateur winning the US Open, or a Club Pro winning the PGA Championship.

Discuss

I don't know enough to discuss, but I'm just looking at the staggering number of club champions in my area and the sheer number of PGA and Web players in between them and the top few who can win a PGA Championship. There's got to be literally thousands of golfers better than the club champions who got cut from the pga/euro/web/canadian/etc. tours? That's not even taking the number of current collegiate D1 players in the world who are mostly better than the club champions?

It just seems like a statistical anomaly for that to happen?

Edited by Lihu

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hate to say but we needed a 3rd choice (Neither) cause I don't see either of them happening...kinda like a 16th seed beating a #1 seed in the NCAA BB Tourney. But I will say this imho if 1 of these choices were ever to occur I'd vote for a PGA  Club Pro to win....these guys are good and if all the stars and moon align and he's playing well anything is possible I guess.

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9 hours ago, iacas said:

https://thesandtrap.com/how-to/create-a-poll/

I voted A. Some collegiate players and high-level amateur players are almost professionals. Club pros, even those who are club pros in name only, don't have the time to practice like even college amateurs.

This.

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I voted A. Especially today with the young talent that seems to come out every so often. I can only imagine there will be a whiz kid soon to do such a thing. Maybe a one and done, but still could happen in this event.

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I went with a PGA Club Pro winning the PGA Championship.  I understand that most club pros are tied up with lessons, outings, and keeping their members happy.  However, there are some that compete quite often and put up some impressive numbers.  In the New York Metro area (NY, NJ, and CT) we have the Metropolitan Golf Association (MGA) that has a series of championships and some of these guys are good.  Who knows, maybe they don't have the consistency, nerves, or desire to play on one of the tours but they could have a good 4 days.  In addition, although the PGA Championship does have the toughest field of golfers but some of the US Open layouts and course conditions seem to have borderline ridiculous difficulty making it less likely that an amateur could win.  I know, pure speculation.

That being said, I would have chosen "neither" if it was a choice.

 

 

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I voted A. There are some really good amateur golfers. A few times you see their names up high on the leaderboard. I wouldn't be shocked to see one actually win the tournament.

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I will give you my opinion. I think a club pro is more likely to win. I think the only way for a amateur to win US Open is to go really low on either Thursday or Friday, and then just hand on for dear life on the weekend. Needs a 65 round on one of first 2 rounds.

 

 

 

 

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I voted A, because I think it is more likely that an amateur would win the US Open. I think it would be a standout college player who qualifies as the US Am or McCormack Medal winner exemption and are playing their exemption before turning pro.
Still a long shot, but even the top qualifiers from the club pro championship have struggled to make the cut at the PGA in recent years.

Players play, tough players win!

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"A" without a doubt. I dont know if its the same in the US but over here at most courses the club Pro is essentially the pro shop manager. At my home course the Pro's spend most of their time seeling hats and shirts and doing club fittings.

Only time i see our's hit a ball is when they take their 10 minute breaks and hit a few on the range (usually with the latest clubs on sale!)

Russ, from "sunny" Yorkshire = :-( 

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A without a doubt "A". We have seen some amateurs actually compete in the US Open in recent years. Two amateurs were in the top 32 last year and both beat Jordan Speith. With the age of Major winners continuing to drop as younger and younger players are able to attain world class games, we may see a college phenom get hot one year and pull this off. As far as club pros in the PGA are concerned they are kind of a joke. I mean club pros made up 19 of the 34 worst scores in the 2017 PGA Championship. They made up 9 of the last 10 places. The only club pro to make the cut and that was Omar Uresti who has 358 starts on the PGA Tour and made almost $4 million. (Not sure how he is a club pro?:hmm:)

The thing is, the qualifying for the US Open is much more difficult. You have to have big time game to make it. Placing in the Top 20 in the Club Pro Championship is no where near as difficult, when was the last time a club pro played in the US Open? Club Pros are great guys and I have many I call close friends, but they don't have big time games.

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Spieth, Mcilroy, DJ, etc were all amateurs at one point, and they were awesome then as well.  None of them were ever club pros.  Those are the type of amateurs who are competing in the U.S. open.  Some of them will be at the top of the PGA Tour in a few years.  Is that true for any club pro?

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Yea I would vote amateur for all the reasons already mentioned. I know some club pros with a lot of game, but like others have said, their schedules just don't allow them to practice enough.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I voted for the amateur to win the US Open. I think it's extremely unlikely to happen. I don't think it's an accident that young players don't tend to win as much as more experienced ones (I know that Spieth and Thomas have put that by the wayside somewhat and Tiger did too). If you're good enough to win the US Open, you're pretty much turning pro as soon as you can. Best chance IMO is someone with outstanding talent winning a US amateur and getting exempt into the majors the following year. Said person basically is a pro for that year, but has to keep his amateur status to be exempt into the majors (three of them anyway). Notable that the one guy in the last however many years it is who might have been good enough to do that turned pro anyway, won the Masters and was in those events anyway. Even he didn't win the US Open that year though. 

I suspect the US Open has a slightly weaker field than the PGA because of the qualification process. That leans it that way too. There are some very good club pros out there though. I just don't believe there are any who are as good as a seriously top notch amateur. I live in the NY met area and there are some outstanding players here. Maverick McNealy shot 61 last year on about a 7200 yard course in a healthy wind. I don't think there are any club pros out there doing that. It would take some serious aligning of the stars for it to happen, but I think the am winning is slightly more likely.

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Neither event is very likely, but I voted A.  There a several instances where an amateur has turned Pro and become very quickly successful on the tour.  While the exception a more likely event than a club pro winning the PGA IMHO.

Butch

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