How Would You Play It? (Hole #10 at Goose Creek)

[jsgolfer]

I would probably hit something short of the bunkers most of the time, although since I play a draw, if the rough wasn't horrible to the right, I might hit Driver or 3-wood and work it back from the rough and get some extra roll.  Anything under 135 yards is a PW or less club, so not hitting a long club into the green anyways.

[phillyk]

Depends on weather.  Good, calm, warm conditions is a driver.  Cold, wet, head wind, I'll take my 2 hybrid down the right side of the bunker.  Driver in warmer conditions is 295+ for me, which will put me past trouble.  I'd also aim it slightly right of center bunker just to be safe in case I miss it. 2 hybrid gets me 240 on fly as a low bullet so it'll leave me an easy 52* from the right FW.  Also depends on whether I need a birdie for a match.  I have a better chance at putting it close from 50yds than 110yds.

[Golfingdad]

3 hours ago, DeadMan said:

Simple answer - I think the shots to get in the hole from outside the bunker at that distance is slightly under 3, but from inside the bunker it's over 3. I think the odds are that I would made par from either situation. But I think being the bunker means virtually no shot at birdie and a much better shot at bogey. From the outside of the bunker from 50-70 yards, I think I'm going to make birdie more often than bogey, but still mostly make pars. My rough guess is probably 2.95 strokes on average from the right of the bunker, and probably 3.33 in the bunker. That's a big difference.

I think you're being way too optimistic here with your estimates.  I not sure we 4-6 handicaps (or higher) make birdie more often than bogey from ANY distance off the green.  Maybe 15-20 yards?

3 hours ago, Lihu said:

Wow, you are really getting yourself ready for our outing. . .this is a tough hole though. . .

Ha.  Actually, I have a tournament there in about 10 days.  And I wouldn't call it a tough hole, just an interesting one. :)

3 hours ago, iacas said:

Unless the rough to the right is really light,

I wouldn't call it really light, but it's not at all heavy either.  I expect, come tournament day, for it to be a little thicker.

---

@mdl, the 352 distance on the scorecard, as you know, isn't as the crow flies, but rather from the tee to whatever they consider to be the middle of the fairway and then to the middle of the green.  (If you measre a 260 yard drive to the center of the right fairway, and then from there to the center of the green, then you get the 352 number)  According to bluegolf.com the distance from the back of the tee to the beginning of the middle bunker is about 223 (220 roughly to the beginning of the rough apron around the bunker)  And from that point to the center of the green it's 120 yards.

1 hour ago, Grinde6 said:

My play would be to lay up with a 5i-6i and maybe try to squeeze any roll out into the middle of the bunkers.

Why would you lay up short of the bunkers ... but not lay up short of the bunkers?

[Grinde6]

33 minutes ago, Golfingdad said:

I think you're being way too optimistic here with your estimates.  I not sure we 4-6 handicaps (or higher) make birdie more often than bogey from ANY distance off the green.  Maybe 15-20 yards?

Ha.  Actually, I have a tournament there in about 10 days.  And I wouldn't call it a tough hole, just an interesting one. :)

I wouldn't call it really light, but it's not at all heavy either.  I expect, come tournament day, for it to be a little thicker.

---

@mdl, the 352 distance on the scorecard, as you know, isn't as the crow flies, but rather from the tee to whatever they consider to be the middle of the fairway and then to the middle of the green.  (If you measre a 260 yard drive to the center of the right fairway, and then from there to the center of the green, then you get the 352 number)  According to bluegolf.com the distance from the back of the tee to the beginning of the middle bunker is about 223 (220 roughly to the beginning of the rough apron around the bunker)  And from that point to the center of the green it's 120 yards.

Why would you lay up short of the bunkers ... but not lay up short of the bunkers?

I didn't say in my post that I would "lay up short of the bunkers".  I simply said I would lay up with a 5i-6i which should not make the bunkers, but in the case it rolls out I wouldn't mind it rolling out into the very beginning between the two bunkers to about 120 out which is a great distance for me.

[baller7345]

Depends on how I'm hitting my driver.  If I have control over it I'll probably play it towards the right side of the fairway and play with a slightly longer approach shot.  If I am having an awful  day with the driver, I might be okay with laying up before the bunker and go with the 120-150 yard approach shot.  Honestly with the distances on my PW-8 iron this is probably the best option for me.

[BamaWade]

If I'm playing for score, layup to left-center all day long for the ~9i in w/a perfect angle.  Can't imagine a pin position or weather condition that'd change my mind.  

Having fun w/the boys (and only if I'm driving it well), then I may go with @Jeremie Boop's plan:  ripping a driver at the dead center of the middle bunker and (hopefully) watching it turn into the short grass...likely the left side for me.  As "ungood" as I am from greenside bunkers, I've always been comfortable with (and reasonable at) fairway bunker shots, assuming a good, flat lie.  (I'm a picker).

But one things's for sure -- I want that approach from the left side of this hole 100% of the time.

BamaWade

[DeadMan]

3 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

I think you're being way too optimistic here with your estimates.  I not sure we 4-6 handicaps (or higher) make birdie more often than bogey from ANY distance off the green.  Maybe 15-20 yards?

You're probably right. I would be pretty confident in making par from that situation, though. That was my thinking more than anything else. Maybe it'd be a 3.1 stroke average from there. Either way, definitely a much better score from playing outside the bunker than in it.

[mdl]

4 hours ago, Golfingdad said:

 

@mdl, the 352 distance on the scorecard, as you know, isn't as the crow flies, but rather from the tee to whatever they consider to be the middle of the fairway and then to the middle of the green.  (If you measre a 260 yard drive to the center of the right fairway, and then from there to the center of the green, then you get the 352 number)  According to bluegolf.com the distance from the back of the tee to the beginning of the middle bunker is about 223 (220 roughly to the beginning of the rough apron around the bunker)  And from that point to the center of the green it's 120 yards.

Haha.  Whoops.  Good point.  My answer basically stays the same from the back tees, though I'd hit 4i instead of 2h to make sure I don't get in the big bunker.

That might change my answer from the middle tees?  Don't have time to go figure out the crow flies distances right now, but given the differences you spelled out with direct line to the front of the big bunker versus card distance, it could be that from the middle tees (340 along the right)  the carry distance over the big bunker (not the far left bunker of course) is in the ~260 range?  When I'm hitting the ball well most of my drives carry in the 260s or better.  In that case it's bombs away, and just take my medicine if I don't hit it well and end up under the lip on the big bunker...

[Golfingdad]

11 minutes ago, mdl said:

Haha.  Whoops.  Good point.  My answer basically stays the same from the back tees, though I'd hit 4i instead of 2h to make sure I don't get in the big bunker.

That might change my answer from the middle tees?  Don't have time to go figure out the crow flies distances right now, but given the differences you spelled out with direct line to the front of the big bunker versus card distance, it could be that from the middle tees (340 along the right)  the carry distance over the big bunker (not the far left bunker of course) is in the ~260 range?  When I'm hitting the ball well most of my drives carry in the 260s or better.  In that case it's bombs away, and just take my medicine if I don't hit it well and end up under the lip on the big bunker...

Looks like from the white tee plates, it's about 270 to carry the big bunker.

Somewhat of a factor ... if it does get windy there, which it can in the afternoon, I think this holes is generally downwind.

[Gunther]

Cut a driver about 250 or 260, leaving 90-100.  Not worried about approach angle with a SW in.

That's how I envision it, of course.  May over-cut or double-cross then have to play out of trouble but that's how the hole sets up for me in my mind.

[JonMA1]

8 hours ago, RandallT said:

Great topic. 

For those picking #2 who aren't too worried about the bunker, I'm curious why not just go #1?

Wouldnt the better angle be worth the risk, if getting stuck in a bunker isn't too worrying? 

Something about those bunkers on the left must be pushing the decision to go right. 

Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case I can't carry 234 (black tees) 90% of the time. And that 10% chance of carrying the front left bunker would leave me a 5% chance of having a good lie. I believe aiming right would leave me a 50/50 chance for a good lie with a short iron or wedge to the front of the green.

No matter what strategy I use, I won't par this hole very often.

[vnmslsrbms]

10 hours ago, Grinde6 said:

We only remember our good shots...the ones that went over 300 yards...the 250 yard drive that missed the fairway right, or the 230 yarder that went into the trees we don't remember...those don't count towards our averages...

Yeah I usually to be safe calculate carry distance with my slight mishit carry distances as I definitely don't sweet spot it every time LOL.  Only way I would go for this is if it's downwind and super down hill.  

10 hours ago, iacas said:

I don't know what you're seeing. It's 298 to the left bunker, 273 is the next line and it's still in the sand. Measuring by pixels I got 287 minimum and that's with an upslope out of the bunker not carried.

I still really doubt you're carrying that bunker even half the time. No way your Shot Zone with the driver puts it beyond 287 the 80% or so of the time required. Because even from 50 yards you're not making birdie all that often… one out of five or six times, probably.

http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.076.2016.html

Pretty much. This isn't laying up versus going for it (or getting close) on a par five second shot with little difference in the trouble around (or all of the trouble being greenside).

Interesting on the tour stats from 50-75.  Indoor on a sim I can get tour average numbers, and I'm pretty surprised that it doesn't really correlate to winning.  So since it doesn't correlate to scoring (winning), there's really no purpose to hit it to there versus 110.  Basically from there I'm missing by 5 yards, and from 110 I'm missing by 10-15 yards.  Could be a difference between 1-2 putts versus 2-3 putts for me, so there's a stroke difference.  The bunker could negate the stroke, probably adding one stroke.  However there is only a 30 pct chance i hit the bunker, so I'm still net up 0.7 strokes.  Is that right?  So after further review I'm taking a driver and going for it. 

[Jack Watson]

Nine of ten I'd play short of the trouble from the tee.

if I can approach from 150 in I am taking that all day.

[iacas]

1 hour ago, vnmslsrbms said:

Interesting on the tour stats from 50-75.  Indoor on a sim I can get tour average numbers, and I'm pretty surprised that it doesn't really correlate to winning.  So since it doesn't correlate to scoring (winning), there's really no purpose to hit it to there versus 110.  Basically from there I'm missing by 5 yards, and from 110 I'm missing by 10-15 yards.  Could be a difference between 1-2 putts versus 2-3 putts for me, so there's a stroke difference.  The bunker could negate the stroke, probably adding one stroke.  However there is only a 30 pct chance i hit the bunker, so I'm still net up 0.7 strokes.  Is that right?  So after further review I'm taking a driver and going for it. 

You're not Tour average, and you're not making up a full stroke from 60 over 110.

[vnmslsrbms]

4 hours ago, iacas said:

You're not Tour average, and you're not making up a full stroke from 60 over 110.

That's true!  Layup it is!

[DaveP043]

I think I'd probably hit a driver to the right of the big bunker, with a bunch of caveats.  First, I don't have the horsepower to carry any of the bunkers, so the first option is completely out.  There's a single little tree in the right rough about 280 from the back of the teeing area, I'd probably be short enough to be able to hit over that if I was that far right, so its not a factor.  Once that tree is eliminated from consideration, its about 50 yards from the bunker to the trees on the right, I can hit that area pretty often.  I'd be looking at the right edge of the fairway as an ideal line, nearly the midpoint between the bunker and the trees.   So why would I choose NOT to hit driver?  If the rough was "penal", if the greens were firm enough that a shot won't hold well, especially from the rough, if the pin was back right, I'd say if two of those three were true, a complete lay-up would be in order.  

[Shooting29]

Holes like this are dependent on many factors. Conditions, prevailing wind, tees, how I'm hitting it... I'm not hitting driver if I have hit it like crap all day to this point. I'm not hitting driver if the wind is gusting in my face. Probably not hitting driver if it's cold and I have multiple layers on. 

The only tee I am even remotely thinking of not pulling driver in good conditions are the blues. All other tees I would line up at the furthest bunker in the left rough and hit a baby cut. 

Now before anyone jumps me about my carry distance, this is from my home course. Notice the needed carry is about 280 yards. I pull driver unless I have more than a club wind in my face or the tees are behind the center of the tee box. 

If I am not hitting driver, I am laying up. No point in hitting enough club to bring the bunker into play if you are not going for it. I would aim at the elbow of the large bunker in the fairway. That looks to be the point where your margin for error is the largest. In my book one of the biggest mistakes you can make is deciding to lay up then lay up in trouble.

[billchao]

23 hours ago, Jeremie Boop said:

For me, I still have some trouble when trying to lay up. A lot of the time I'll either worry about hitting it too far and duff it or worry about hitting it too short and nuke it.

You just pick a club that puts your shot zone short of the hazard and make your regular swing. If it's 215 to the bunker, hit your 200 club. Pretend your landing area is a green that you don't want to miss long.